POTM Blog
Pulse On Today’s Market - San Francisco Residential Real Estate
Paulo's data-backed notes on the San Francisco market: buyer strategy, seller timing, neighborhoods, condos and TICs, cash buyers, and the AI-era economy. New POTM Blog issues drop weekly, built on the same governed MLS data as Paulo's Pulse, my research lab. No hype, no fear.
Latest · POTM Blog Issue #15 · August 2, 2026
The Last Building You Can Live In
Issue #14 showed an empty shelf. Issue #13 built a ladder out of what is still on it. There is one more rung on that ladder, and almost nobody covers it. You can live in a triplex or a fourplex. But a duplex is the last building where the half you keep is still the size of a house. This spring, San Francisco buyers paid for that difference. The buildings that hand their owner less did not move at all.
Quick read: An owner can occupy any small multifamily building, but a duplex is the last one where the unit you keep is still house-sized: a median 1,462 square feet per unit, against 1,218 in a triplex and 916 in a fourplex. This spring San Francisco buyers paid for that. Duplexes sold a median 11.7% over asking between March and late July, their highest in the eleven springs on record, after three straight springs at asking. Four-unit buildings, the ones an investor has to underwrite, still closed slightly under asking.
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POTM Blog Issue #15 · August 2, 2026
The Last Building You Can Live In
Quick read: An owner can occupy any small multifamily building, but a duplex is the last one where the unit you keep is still house-sized: a median 1,462 square feet per unit, against 1,218 in a triplex and 916 in a fourplex. This spring San Francisco buyers paid for that. Duplexes sold a median 11.7% over asking between March and late July, their highest in the eleven springs on record, after three straight springs at asking. Four-unit buildings, the ones an investor has to underwrite, still closed slightly under asking.
Read the issue ›POTM Blog Issue #14 · July 29, 2026
The Drought
Quick read: The whole city is a bidding war for one almost boring reason: there is nearly nothing to buy. San Francisco houses fell to 0.7 months of supply in June, about three weeks of homes on the market and the lowest reading for any June in at least twenty years. Condos, townhomes, and TICs all dropped to near record lows too, active listings are down about 40% in a year, and it is not interest rates.
Read the issue ›POTM Blog Issue #13 · July 25, 2026
The Pressure Valve
Quick read: The house frenzy is leaking into whatever lives like a house: condos in the house districts sold a median 14.6% over asking this spring, a ten-year high, TICs posted their strongest spring since 2018, and the downtown towers are back at asking for the first time since 2022, selling twice as fast as last year.
Read the issue ›POTM Blog Issue #12 · July 21, 2026
Why San Francisco Homes Sell So Far Over Asking
Quick read: You keep seeing it: sold for hundreds of thousands over asking, a million over asking.
Read the issue ›POTM Blog Issue #11 · July 17, 2026
After the Overbid
Quick read: The overbid story now runs one tier below the trophy core: Sunset and Parkside houses cleared 146.8% of list on a strong sample, while spillover stays observed, not proven.
Read the issue ›POTM Blog Issue #10 · July 14, 2026
A Million Over Asking
Quick read: The $1M-over-asking wave is real, but it is a trophy-house story in three districts, powered by cash and inflated by pricing.
Read the issue ›POTM Blog Issue #09 · July 11, 2026
The Mid-Year Mark
Quick read: At the 2026 halfway mark, houses posted their most competitive first half on record while condos stayed in the patient lane.
Read the issue ›POTM Blog Issue #08 · July 5, 2026
The Luxury Exception
Quick read: Over a full year the $5M+ top looks calm; in the last 90 days it heated up, and cash did the winning.
Read the issue ›POTM Blog Issue #07 · June 30, 2026
The Two-Speed Market
Quick read: Houses cleared about 124% of list over the last 90 days while condos held near 101%. Two markets, one city.
Read the issue ›POTM Blog Issue #06 · June 25, 2026
The Missing Middle
Quick read: The fiercest bidding wars are in the $1.5M to $3M middle, not at the bottom or the top of the price ladder.
Read the issue ›POTM Blog Issue #05 · June 21, 2026
Who's Paying Cash
Quick read: About a third of San Francisco homes sold for cash over the last year, and the share climbs with price.
Read the issue ›POTM Blog Issue #04 · June 17, 2026
The Spring Acceleration
Quick read: Houses sped into summer at about 123% of list with a median up roughly 26% in a year; condos held near 100%.
Read the issue ›POTM Blog Issue #03 · June 13, 2026
Where the Overbids Are
Quick read: Citywide, homes sold at about 103.6% of list, but that average hides a 33-point spread between neighborhoods.
Read the issue ›POTM Blog Issue #02 · June 10, 2026
The Condo Turn
Quick read: Compass's June report headlines another single-family record; the quieter story is the condo turn underneath it.
Read the issue ›POTM Blog Issue #01 · June 7, 2026
The AI-Era Spring Market
Quick read: One of the strongest springs in years, with the heat concentrated in houses and the cash-heavy luxury tier.
Read the issue ›Go deeper
To explore supply, competition, and prices by neighborhood, district, and property type, open Paulo's Pulse, the research lab behind every issue (en español: Pulso de Paulo). Practical how-to guides live on the Tools & Resources page.
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